Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power

The initial premise of this book is that, during what we now call Antiquity, the Indian Ocean Basin was the largest and most dynamic center of trade and cultural commerce in the world. True, the Mediterranean was definitive for the Western culture that today rules economics and politics, but it wasn't comparable to the Indian Ocean in terms of scale and diversity. The Americas' Conquest gave way to 500 years of a central role for the Atlantic Ocean, but since a few years ago, and for the foreseeable future, China's and India's resurgence, plus the threatening presence of Iran and Pakistan, as well as the importance of the Arab countries, have caused the Indian Ocean to recover all its geostrategic importance. Kaplan begins by outlining the current situation: a large part of the world's fossil fuels are transported above its waters and cross some of the most vulnerable and dangerous enclaves in the world, that is the straits of Bab-el-Mandel, Ormuz, and Malacca. Moreover, piracy in Africa's East coast and in the myriad islands between Indonesia and the Philippines, trade in the region, China's crucial supply lines and, in general, the great ethnic, religious, and ideological diversity, with its concurrent social and political instability, make this ocean the focal point of the future.As in all his books, Kaplan makes wide and deep use of history and culture to reinforce his theses. His analysis begins in Oman, that strange and peaceful Sultanate, a model of benevolent and illustrated despotism, and throws the first stone: is necessarily Western democracy the right model for all peoples? Is it the best one? He, of course, doesn't offer definitive answers, but sows doubt. Then he goes on to recover the memory of Colonialism: the astonishing and sudden retreat of the Chinese, in the XV Century, just when they were about to make the Indian their Mare Nostrum, changed history forever, by leaving the way free for the Portuguese invasions that started the Western expansion (told in fascinating detail by Camoes in "Os Lusiadas"). Kaplan goes on then to tell about the complex events taking place in Pakistan and India, with the Chinese struggle to find supply lines as alternatives to Malacca. From Bangladesh and Kolkata to Sri Lanka, Burma and Indonesia, he examines every region's history and shows how it is related with current events.It is there, in the Indian Ocean and its littorals, to which the Monsoon gave their commercial and military calendar, where the new winds of change will determine the world's shape. It will be the theater of war (hopefully only commercial and strategic), the chessboard for the governments of billions of people in flux. Islam, the new middle classes, huge infrastructure projects, trade and energy routes, and ideological and practical clashes, will make the Indian Ocean again the matrix of the world.As always, a fascinating reflection, a mix of in-depth reporting, geostrategic, economic, and political analysis, and narrative, that raises the relevant questions and examines them without prejudices to try and find the future of the world.

Never mind the headline, I'll get back to that, Kaplan artfully immersed me so I could smell the subtle flavour of cloves in the African tea and feel the splash of oil stained salt water deeper in my nostrils. I bought this book thinking I will wind up with some kind of doctoral dissertation on strategy and security perspective, given that it was a recommended read by the US Naval War College. But, I was in for a pleasent surprise! It was a nice journalistic book. I have to give it to Kaplan for bringing out gracefully, the historical nuances and the forces shaping the littoral state's internal dynamics.Thoroughly enjoyable and light reading is what makes this such a wonderful work. The way he packs huge amount of info with distinct personification of states, all within the gravitational pull of the Indian Ocean is amazing. Kaplan played ophthalmologist to help me refocus my perspective on states such as Burma and Indonesia amongst others, I was not aware that you can find muslim women in tight jeans and tank top revealing belly, and wearing head scarf in downtown Indonesia. Though I kept reading various internal dynamics being played out amidst the states he visited, I couldn't escape the pull of US and China that was always there, right from the beginning until the last page. This is the major takeaway from Monsoon, for me.Kaplan recognises emerging structures in the IOR, and acknowledge the impending decline of the US naval power. The fear and pessimism of the American decline is replaced by optimism, where both the US and China's interests converge. He understands the Cold War baggage weighs heavy between erstwhile adversaries, but that doesn't mean China will be the spawn of the great satan that needs to be decapitated. Why not? because they are joined at hip by the greatest universal force that motivates our existence - trade. Trade, indeed is the leveller. The future, as the author predicts, could be peaceful by the process of collaboration. The global commons are too important for a single state to manage. The Indian Ocean,the worlds energy interstate, will be atrial to cooperative relations. We don't know how China will behave? What if it turns renegade? Well, the US can always checkmate China on the the Western Pacific front, by the wall of Korea, Japan, Phillippines and Australia. In Indian Ocean, India will stall any Chinese misadventure.With due respect to the author, I consider this work as a prologue, to a more serious academic discourse.

Great insights about the indo Pacific region .It takes takes you to the journey starting from oman Iran East Africa covering all india subcontinent to southeast asia and china. I enjoyed reading this book.

Ottimo

Highly interesting read! Very insightful analyses and predictions

Very good as expected, and on time☺

A must to follow the evebts taking place so far from europe and crucial for the future balance of powers